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By Saud M Al-Fattah; Ian Duncan; et al
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Sample text
Today, with the international debate having reached an apparent impasse, significant actors on both sides of the Annex I/non-Annex I line are strongly defending their perception of what is fair. On the one hand, it is clear that if non-Annex I countries are given the same level of per-capita emissions or historical emissions as Annex I states, the GHG concentrations sought by the IPCC will not be achievable (no matter what domestic mitigation efforts are undertaken by Annex I countries). The flipside to this argument is that much of the emissions growth seen in nonAnnex I countries is directly linked to goods and services that may originate there but are consumed within Annex I countries.
5). While most scenarios try to emphasize a decrease in the use and impact of these fuels in the future—the IEA 2008 “Blue Map” being one—there are very few scenarios that consider abandoning fossil fuels to be possible from a demand perspective [27]. The example from the box above illustrates that—as highlighted in the previous section—on a percentage basis, fossil fuels have dominated the global energy portfolio for some time. Furthermore, they appear within most mainstream “global energydemand” scenarios, where they provide a significant portion of the world’s energy needs (more than 60% in 2050).
3 WRI “Negative Wedges” concern (2007) applied to IEA Blue Map baseline (2009) Finally, in 2009 the IEA released the results of their Energy Technology Perspectives computer model, with which they essentially calculated a quantified version of the Princeton wedges [11]. 4. 4 IEA Blue Map Scenario (2009) While it remains difficult to predict how the actual emissions-reduction process will take place, these theoretical models are important guidelines in terms of supplying policy makers with an idea of which solutions to pursue.